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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd