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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

Yet the current race is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and longtime underperformers rising in unison. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still